Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Top Ten Predictions Revisited

Well here we are! Our 44th President has been re-elected. A second term notwithstanding, now is a good a time to revisit my top "Top Ten Predictions for Obama’s First Term", published on November 5, 2008.

10. The Hip House
Kind of a hit, kind of miss.  Yes, young people are more engaged and "follow" President Obama. Big deal though, as they follow is his social calendar - his interviews on Kimmel, NCAA tournament picks, that sort of stuff.  Young Americans still can't explain the veto process.

9. The dis-armed forces
I was wrong.  Military spending has remained pretty flat in the last 4 years.  What has changed is where the money is being spent.  Less on large martial campaigns for sure. More on covert ops (which begs the question, how did the spending remain the same?).  I'm curious to find out though, what was meant by "more flexibility after the election".  We'll find out though, no doubt.

8. Baby love
Bullseye! I just didn't go far enough when I predicted "entry level" socialized medicine. We have ObamaCare!  Yes, everyone will be covered, but the level of care will necessarily go down - logic demands no less. Finally, the cost of health care has gone up, not down as promised. (sad face).

7. America!  What a Country!
I couldn't have been more wrong. Internationally, America is not viewed in a better light.  We're still Americans, just not as bold. Our enemies see our unclenched fist as weakness.  Our allies are left wondering who's in charge.  The White House actually used the term "lead from behind".  You can't make this stuff up.

6. Roe v. Wade through 2040
Can I extend this prediction through 2044?  Sotomayor and Kagan are just the beginning.  I'll predict at least 2 more progressive 50-something justices in the next 4 years.

5. Yo, bra' Man!  No More Excuses!
I guess I should have read Alinsky's chapter on demonization of the rich, the new boogie man (it's no longer the white man).  The bottom line is that African-Americans will forever have someone to blame. Ignore the evidence of the last 40 years, including a so-called middle class mixed-race kid with a funny name ascending to the highest office in the land. 

4. Same deal, different century
Back then, I said, "let’s take an inventory of what 'rights' people think we should have – now, and again in 2012".  Well, let's do it:

  • 2008 - abortion. 2012 - free contraception
  • 2008 - temporary unemployment benefits. 2012 - unbounded assistance 
  • 2008 - medicaid. 2012 - ObamaCare
  • 2008 - education. 2012 - a free cell phones (as communication is a right)
I could go on, but you get the point.

3. Will work for food (stamps)
How prophetic.  I'll allow interested readers to look up the number of Americans on food stamps, then and now.  

2. Kilo-what!
The reality of our time is that fossil fuels run the planet.  Wind and solar are too expensive, and they can't be made competitive by executive fiat.  We're in for even higher energy prices in the next 4 years.  It'll hurt the poor the most, increasing their dependence on government.  Sense a pattern here?

1. The check is in the mail
Did I nail this one or what?  What's true for personal finance is true for federal budgets.  If you don't even have a goal, you'll never reach it.  Did they ever even pass a budget?  What Obama called Bush "unpatriotic" for, he doubled, and in less time.  I cite the national debt clock.  If you're interested, look it up - see where we are now, and where we were in 2008.  SMH.

I'll conclude by restating my belief that we're headed for European style socialism with European style results. The rich will be poorer, but so will everyone else, particularly the poor, and they can't afford it.


Anonymous said...

Agree with #10, 9, 8, 6, 5 (with a caveat), and 1.

For 7 - The USA is not the benevolent friend to all nations that people expected, but the Obama led US is still far and away more liked abroad than it was under Bush or would have been under Romney (exception - Israel.) "Leading from behind" is what has kept us from committing many thousands of troops to Libya, Syria, Mali, Iran, and who knows where else...

The caveat on 5 - I am curious if the same bogeyman would be there if we had 3% unemployment in the US. Not that it's right, but I think it's a function of the times more than politics.

For 4 - I think that it's a vocal minority on either side that are fighting over that. The 2012 election was not won or lost on the HHS mandate, for example.

3 - I am curious about the second derivative here. Food stamp numbers obviously went up as the economy tanked in 2007-2010. Are they going back down, however slowly, as unemployment creeps down? I think this is more "too early to call" than anything.

2 - That difference is narrowing. Remember that fossil fuels had a 100+ year head start. I think that short of a major market disruption, energy prices are going to level off for awhile, as demand is growing slower in the BRICs and not at all in the west, as efficiency measures like the CAFE fuel standards (the other side of the supply & demand equation) start to pay off.

I look forward to poking holes in your 2012 predictions. ;-))


Anonymous said...

10. That was 100% a hit. You said nothing about how they would engage in your original post.

9. You really went out on a limb on that prediction. The country that spends more money than the next 10 countries combined on their military will reduce its spending. No way!

8. I don't see much in the ACA that affects children except for extending coverage until 26. Obamacare is not "socialized medicine", it requires people to pay for private insurance. The difference is clear.

7. Did you even bother to research this? The difference between 2008 and 2012 is pretty stark. Approval has slipped in a few countries but is generally up: http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2012/06/USIMAGE0045.png

4. "2008 - abortion. 2012 - free contraception"

No one demands free contraception. They want their health care (which they pay for) to pay for most of it. Almost everyone still has a copay.

"2008 - temporary unemployment benefits. 2012 - unbounded assistance"

What do you mean by unbounded assistance? I'm not aware of any unlimited free money programs offered by the government

"2008 - medicaid. 2012 - ObamaCare"

How is that an expansion of demands?

"2008 - education. 2012 - a free cell phones (as communication is a right)"

Where did you dig up this nonsense?

3. We're still recovering from the biggest recession since the great depression - this will drop over time.

2. "We're in for even higher energy prices in the next 4 years."

Oil and natural gas production have gone up since Obama took office. C'mon man. You can't blame Obama for growing global energy demand. There is little that any president could do about that. http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=production

1. "What Obama called Bush "unpatriotic" for, he doubled, and in less time."

What did he double? Surely you won't say the debt or the deficit.